Florida Migration Plummets 93% - Shocking 2026 South Florida Real Estate Market Update

Net domestic migration to Florida has plummeted 93% in just three years... Let's talk about it.

The numbers are in, and they’ve sent shockwaves through the national headlines: net domestic migration to Florida has plummeted 93% in just three years. According to the latest 2026 U.S. Census data, the Sunshine State gained just under 23,000 new residents last year—a staggering departure from the nearly 60,000 in 2024, the 184,000 in 2023, and the historic 311,000-person frenzy of 2022.

As a South Florida native born and raised here—having lived the lifestyle from the historic canopies of Coconut Grove to the beaches of Boca—I have watched this coastal evolution firsthand. To the outside observer, these metrics look like a retreat; to those of us on the ground, this is the end of the "panic-migration" and the beginning of a far more sophisticated, sustainable era for Florida real estate.

The End of the "COVID Frenzy" and the Rise of Permanence

Looking back at 2021 and 2022, we lived through a period of mass fear and reactive decision-making. High-earning professionals from New York, California, and Chicago made a desperate jump to Florida, fueled by the belief that the traditional office was dead and the promise of sub-3% interest rates. This created a historic "gold rush" where properties closed well above asking price and inventory vanished into a hyper-competitive buyer's pool.

Today, the dust has settled. The "online-only" workforce is being pulled back into the office, and the frenzy has been replaced by Institutional Gravity. We are no longer seeing a market driven by panic; we are seeing a market driven by permanence.

The Interest Rate "Lock-In" and Market Normalization

The most significant factor in this migration slowdown is the "Interest Rate Lock-in." We are currently in a historic battle between "dating the rate" and "waiting forever." During the pandemic, buyers captured once-in-a-lifetime rates below 3%. Today, asking a homeowner to trade that 2.5% rate for a 6.5% or 7% environment is a difficult proposition. While many are waiting for rates to return to those rare pandemic levels, history tells us that sub-3% money was the anomaly, not the rule. We are now entering a more normalized market where prices are finally reflecting the reality of current borrowing costs.

The Single-Family Supply Squeeze: Building Permits Down 50+%

The shift isn't just in who is moving—it’s in what we are building. Across South Florida, single-family building permits have fallen nearly 50% to 60% in most counties. This is a massive signal: the craze and frenzy of post-pandemic "panic-building" has cooled. Builders are no longer racing to put up inventory at any cost; they are being surgical. This supply-side "exhale" is exactly what the market needed to find its footing, creating a future of extreme scarcity for quality single-family homes.

Inventory Analysis: Broward and Miami-Dade’s "Two-Speed" Market

To give you a scope of today’s market, current inventory sits around 30,000 residential active listings across Broward and Miami-Dade County. Contrast that with early 2022, when we saw a record low of under 10,000 listings.

While on the surface it looks like inventory is "inflated," you have to look closer at the asset classes:

The Condo Headwinds: A huge portion of this sitting inventory is the battered South Florida condo market, currently navigating intense regulatory changes, structural integrity assessments and insurance hurdles. Average days on market hovers over 100 days while single-family homes are selling in about half the time.

The Single-Family Stronghold: Single-family properties are a completely different beast. In highly sought-after neighborhoods, quality homes are still increasing in value year-over-year and are not sitting on the market for long. Miami and Fort Lauderdale remain some of the most desirable cities for single-family properties in the world, and that demand is only increasing.

High-Income Migration: The $100K+ Median Move

The reality is that "quality" never goes out of style. While the volume of movers has slowed, the caliber has increased. Nearly 15% of newcomers last year were highly skilled professionals in scientific and technical sectors.

In 2025, the typical out-of-state transplant moving to Miami for work earned a median income of over $101,454—nearly double the $61,716 median of those moving from within Florida. We are seeing a continuous flow of business headquarters relocating to South Florida, bringing an appetite for luxury that pushes the "floor" of our real estate higher every year.

The 5-Year Verdict: Why Scarcity Wins

In my professional opinion, the upward trajectory of South Florida remains steadfast. Miami and Fort Lauderdale are still in their infancy compared to legacy giants like New York or London. Ask yourself: Have we ever seen Florida real estate prices decline over any given five-year span? History says no. Due to our fixed geography and the concept of scarcity, specific patches of real estate will continue to appreciate accordingly over the next several decades.

The frenzy is officially over, and the "Strategy" has begun. The luxury market here will remain unshakable as long as Florida remains the Sunshine State. Whether you are navigating the current rate environment to find a home or looking to renovate a property to capture its maximum equity, you need a partner who understands the rhythm of these streets.

Native's Tip: I’ve seen the frenzies come and go. One truth remains: Florida real estate doesn't go on sale; it just takes a breath. The Florida sun isn't setting—it’s just finally shining on a market that now values expertise over hype.

Ready to navigate the 2026 market with a local expert? Contact me for a confidential consultation at 954-257-3393.

Reference Sources:
[Realtor.com article]

[FGCU Data Resources]